Simulating Purchase Intent for New Product Lines with Modeliq

Forecasting Consumer Reactions Before Launch — Without Waiting for Real-World Data

The Challenge: No Historical Data, High Commercial Risk

A leading global FMCG brand was preparing to launch a new line of plant-based snacks in three key markets — the United States, Germany, and Brazil. The brand’s internal research team had conducted early concept testing, but with no historical sales data for this new category and limited time before launch, they faced a serious dilemma:

• How could they reliably simulate consumer purchase intent for an entirely new product line?
• How could they identify potential high-opportunity segments and forecast likely reactions?

Traditional surveys and focus groups couldn’t deliver fast enough or reach the necessary breadth of consumer profiles. Moreover, relying solely on stated preferences wasn’t enough — the brand needed modeled behavior, not just opinions.

The Solution: Synthetic Scenario Testing with Modeliq

To reduce risk and sharpen launch strategies, the client partnered with DataDiggers to simulate purchase intent using Modeliq, our synthetic insight engine built for scenario testing, forecasting, and early-stage validation.

Modeliq creates synthetic insights powered by advanced statistical logic and machine learning. In this case, it was used to:

• Model synthetic consumers in target demographics based on existing patterns in similar snack categories
• Simulate behavioral responses across various price points, packaging options, and advertising framings
• Forecast likely purchase intent based on synthetic population dynamics, not just survey feedback

Working with the client’s internal team, we defined three go-to-market scenarios and eight potential consumer profiles per market. These included health-conscious millennial parents in the U.S., flexitarian urban dwellers in Germany, and low-income snack buyers in Brazil.

We then simulated each persona’s expected reaction to the product line across different pricing tiers and messaging frameworks.

The Methodology: Synthetic Personas, Real-World Logic

Using Modeliq, we created synthetic cohorts calibrated to match real-world consumer distributions based on:

• Dietary habits
• Past snack category purchase behavior
• Sensitivity to pricing and packaging changes
• Cultural and regional buying cues

We infused these synthetic cohorts with logic derived from DataDiggers’ MyVoice proprietary panel and enhanced it with historical category data and behavioral datasets. Importantly, the synthetic simulations respected local nuances while retaining statistical coherence across markets.

Each scenario was stress-tested for:

• Likelihood to purchase at varying price points
• Expected repeat purchase behavior
• Sensitivity to ad claims (e.g., “natural,” “protein-rich,” “zero sugar”)
• Product cannibalization within the client’s existing portfolio

Results: Risk Reduction, Segment Prioritization, Smarter Launch Planning

Thanks to Modeliq, the client achieved in just four days what traditional research could have taken four weeks — and at a fraction of the cost.

Key outcomes included:

✅ Avoiding a rollout failure in Brazil by simulating low price elasticity among target consumers, which contradicted internal forecasts
✅ Prioritizing Germany for early launch, where synthetic cohorts showed high purchase intent and low risk of cannibalization
✅ Refining messaging in the U.S. to shift focus from “eco-consciousness” to “family-friendly snacking,” based on synthetic response modeling
✅ Reducing reliance on real-world testing by validating assumptions early, before investing in physical shelf space or supply chain scaling

Most importantly, the client’s go-to-market team felt confident in their roadmap — because their decisions were informed not by guesswork, but by modeled insights grounded in real behavioral logic.

Why Modeliq Makes the Difference

Modeliq is purpose-built for innovation-driven research needs, offering:

• Speed-to-insight: Simulations run in hours, not weeks
• High integrity: Synthetic cohorts reflect real-world dynamics
• Flexibility: Easily test new variables or scenarios at scale
• Cost-efficiency: Reduce need for extensive fieldwork in early-stage validation

Whether you’re exploring a new product, testing price elasticity, or forecasting adoption in new markets, Modeliq offers strategic clarity when traditional data is scarce or slow.

About DataDiggers

DataDiggers is a technology-driven market research agency delivering fast, reliable, and high-quality insights. With global proprietary panels and rigorous data validation, we ensure that only verified, high-integrity data informs your decisions.

Our ecosystem includes:

• Brainactive, our AI-powered DIY platform for survey-based research
• Syntheo, for AI persona-driven insights in hard-to-reach segments
• Correlix, for synthetic data generation at scale
• Modeliq, for simulation, modeling, and scenario forecasting

Founded in 2015 and ISO 20252:2019 certified, we serve brands and agencies across 65+ countries with a commitment to data excellence, innovation, and speed.

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