Forecasting Post-COVID Travel Intentions Across Regions

Overview

As travel restrictions eased globally in late 2022 and 2023, brands in tourism, hospitality, and transportation were eager to understand whether consumer travel behaviors would return to pre-pandemic norms—or evolve into something entirely new.

To support strategic planning in this uncertain climate, a global airline consortium turned to DataDiggers to forecast post-COVID travel intentions across five regions: North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, MENA, and South America. The research needed to be fast, reliable, and forward-looking—reflecting both real consumer sentiment and likely behavioral shifts.

Objectives

The client wanted to:

• Forecast future leisure and business travel patterns post-COVID by region
• Compare attitudes across demographics (age, income, education, family status) and between urban vs. rural populations
• Model expected rebound timelines using a mix of observed and synthetic insights
• Provide inputs for internal scenario planning and investment decisions

Challenges

• Regional variability in travel regulations, vaccine adoption, and economic recovery
• Rapidly evolving consumer sentiment, with mixed signals between caution and pent-up demand
• Lack of historical precedence for long-term pandemic impact on global travel
• Hard-to-reach segments, such as older travelers and rural populations with limited digital presence

Our Solution

To meet these challenges, DataDiggers deployed a hybrid methodology, combining real respondent data from our global proprietary panels with AI-generated synthetic personas to simulate possible outcomes.

🔍 Real-World Data Collection

Using MyVoice, our proprietary panel network, we surveyed over 25,000 vetted participants in 30 countries across the five target regions. Respondents were screened for:

• Travel history (pre-, during, and post-COVID)
• Willingness to travel within the next 12 months
• Preference for domestic vs. international travel
• Confidence in transportation and health safety infrastructure
• Perceived economic ability to spend on leisure or business travel

Data was gathered through our Brainactive DIY platform, ensuring rapid deployment, real-time analytics, and deep profiling (over 70 data points per respondent).

🧠 Synthetic Insights with Syntheo

In regions or demographics where sample feasibility was limited (e.g., rural seniors in MENA), we leveraged Syntheo, our AI persona engine, to model likely behaviors using realistic, demographically-matched synthetic respondents. These digital personas were trained on historic patterns, real survey data, and regional behavioral indicators to project likely outcomes.

📈 Simulation & Forecasting via Modeliq

To support long-term scenario planning, we ran multi-path travel recovery simulations using Modeliq. By blending observed and synthetic data, we forecasted different rebound curves (V-shaped, U-shaped, and W-shaped recovery scenarios) for each region.

Key Findings

• Pent-up demand for leisure travel was highest in South America and Southern Europe, especially among younger adults aged 25–40
• Business travel intentions remained significantly lower than pre-pandemic across all regions, especially in Asia-Pacific
• Domestic travel was the primary preference for 63% of respondents globally, with international travel confidence lagging in North America and MENA
• Older travelers (65+) expressed ongoing safety concerns, especially regarding air travel—insights largely derived from Syntheo simulations
• Urban vs. rural gaps were notable: urban residents were twice as likely to plan trips within 6 months of survey vs. rural populations

Impact

By combining advanced data collection and simulation capabilities, DataDiggers helped the client:

✅ Prioritize recovery investments in specific regions with early return signals (e.g., Brazil, Spain, UAE)
✅ Refocus marketing efforts toward domestic and short-haul trips instead of long-haul travel
✅ Adapt business offerings—such as flexible booking, insurance coverage, and hybrid work-travel options
✅ Improve forecast accuracy through scenario modeling using Modeliq's multi-path simulations
✅ Include otherwise underrepresented populations in insights using Syntheo’s realistic AI personas

Why DataDiggers?

At a time when speed, scale, and data accuracy were more critical than ever, DataDiggers delivered:

• ISO 20252:2019-certified data quality, backed by IPQS, GeoIP, reCAPTCHA, and digital fingerprinting
• Fast time-to-insight, with survey setup and delivery completed in under 5 days using Brainactive
• Innovative use of AI, combining Syntheo and Modeliq for forward-looking, synthetic insights
• Truly global reach, through a proprietary network of 30+ panels and access to 50M+ verified respondents in 65+ countries
• Trusted research compliance, fully aligned with GDPR and international privacy standards

Looking Ahead

Post-COVID travel patterns remain fluid, but this project proved that data-led agility is possible—and essential. With the help of DataDiggers’ hybrid insights model, the client continues to refine its forecasting models and regional investment strategies.

As travel continues to evolve, we stand ready with authentic global panels, synthetic foresight, and decision-grade data to help brands navigate what comes next.

📩 Ready to forecast what’s next in your industry?
Let’s explore how DataDiggers can power your next market research initiative—fast, reliably, and globally.

Contact us today or explore Syntheo, Modeliq, and Brainactive to learn more.